Baseball Prospectus' excellent projections are out for subscribers. These are some of my favorite projections (and do fairly well against others in the crap shoot that are seasonal baseball projections).
I'd love to talk about some specific player projections(especially on a certain recently-traded high-profile pitcher), but they are paid for through a subscription and they ask not to distribute them, so I will not. I might be doing an article on how the season forecasts overall, hitting and pitching-wise, but that will be with totals, not specific player projections. But here are some teasers to encourage you to subscribe to BP (well worth 35 bucks/year).
My teaser is oddly offbeat. I've been kind of on a Three True Outcomes obsession lately for some strange reason. Three True Outcomes are the base on balls, the home run, and the strikeout. The TTO% is therefore (Walks + Strikeouts + Home Runs) / (At Bats + Walks).
Top 10 TTO% seasons for players with 300+ At Bats.
- Jack Cust (2007) - .590
- Mark McGwire(1998) - .577
- Jack Clark (1987) - .559
- Ryan Howard (2007) - .555
- Melvin Nieves (1997) - .543
- Jim Thome (2001) - .542
- Dave Kingman (1973) - .540
- Rob Deer (1991) - .538
- Russell Branyan (2001) - .538
- Rob Deer (1987) - .536
Two guys cracked the top 10 seasons list last year, Jack Cust and Ryan Howard. So I decided to check and see what PECOTA is projecting this year for TTO%. These include only projected players with 300+ projected AB's.
2008 PECOTA Projected TTO%
- Jack Cust - .508
- Ryan Howard - .496
- Chip Cannon - .492
- Adam Dunn - .482
