Cold Hard Stats

According to this Sports Illustrated Article, Tony LaRussa is planning on continuing his trend of batting pitchers in the 8th hole, and putting a "second leadoff" hitter in the 9th spot.

I can see some of the reasoning behind it, and the Cardinals are kind of an exception because their pitchers led the NL in OPS in 2007.

But, inversely, the strategy can backfire. Each spot down in the batting order receives about 20 less Plate Appearances over 162 games. And what about when there are ducks on the pond for the 8th place hitter? In most cases, I'd rather have Aaron Miles in that spot instead of your average pitcher.

Using one of my favorite toys, Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis, I'll do a couple quick and dirty experiments just to see what effect some different lineups have. I'm using the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections.

Just to keep things simple, I'll give it a shot with both Miles and Brendan Ryan in the 9th hole, and flip back to "traditional" to see how it changes expected Runs Scored/Game. I'll do it using the team average stats for pitchers in 2007, and also using Kip Wells, who is a batting stud.

Basically, with the average Cardinals pitcher, the best situation is either Ryan or Miles batting 9th and the pitcher batting 8th. In fact, this combination results in about an additional .130 runs/game. This may not sound like much, but over the course of a 162 games, this could result in 20+ additional runs. With Kip Wells pitching, the advantages go even higher for batting a position player 9th.

So maybe Tony LaRussa does have something here. But even with this radical lineup change, he is missing a big opportunity. According to Lineup Analysis, the best lineup possible is one which features Pujols batting 1st and the pitcher batting 6th or 7th. By doing this, it adds over an additional .1 run/game. I think it's safe to say that we will never see such a crazy lineup in a modern MLB game though.

Yay! Pitchers and catchers start reporting tomorrow. For me, that is the start of the baseball "pre-season", to borrow from our football friends.

I've already been actively drafting one fantasy baseball squad, so that has been fun. If you have never done a long-term auction, give it a shot. Basically what each team does is nominate one player a day, and bidding takes place. Once a player has no bids in a 24-hour period, the highest bid wins the player. It is very fun. The auction takes like a month, but daily time devotion is minimal, even though when I'm the web, I'm refreshing it every few minutes to see what the new activity is.

Still finishing up the rest of the projected standings. I should have the AL West done tomorrow, and the Central divisions done by the weekend. My spring semester starts tomorrow, so that means I should be posting more frequently, because I find any excuse I can to procrastinate on my schoolwork.

My series of 2008 projected MLB standing using PECOTA continues. As a Giants fan, I have a feeling that this standings projection is going to be especially tough.

NL West 2008 Projected Standings
 

1. San Diego Padres : 88-74
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: 86-76
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 83-79
4. Colorado Rockies: 79-83
5. San Francisco Giants: 71-91
   

Most surprising thing here is Rockies at below .500 . Comes down to the pitching. Looks like another very close division race, except for the Giants. Don't need PECOTA to tell me that that offense is going to be awful. Not quite Detroit of 2002-2003 bad, but fairly close. At least they have pitching.

My prediction before doing these projections was the D-Backs, so this somewhat supports that.

NL West 2008 Projected Runs Scored/Allowed
 

1. San Diego Padres : 734/669
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: 805/753
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 760/739
   
4. Colorado Rockies: 841/864
   
5. San Francisco Giants: 624/713
   

Next up, American League West.

My series of 2008 projected MLB standing using PECOTA continues. This time to the National League East.

One note: for generating NL runs scored, the 9th spot in the order will be the hitting averages of the teams pitchers in 2007.


NL East 2008 Projected Standings
 

1. New York Mets: 95-67
2. Atlanta Braves: 87-75
3. Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75
4. Florida Marlins: 81-81
5. Washington Nationals: 73-89
   

No surprise here. Santana drastically helps the Mets. Braves edge out the Phillies for 2nd by percentage points. No love for the Nats.

NL East 2008 Projected Runs Scored/Allowed
 

1. New York Mets: 800/659
   
2. Atlanta Braves: 826/755
   
3. Philadelphia Phillies: 846/775
   
4. Florida Marlins: 793/792
   
5. Washington Nationals: 734/819
   

Update: Updated Baltimore's record due to trade with Seattle. Bedard removed, Sherril added to relief staff.

Here is the first in my series of 2008 projected MLB standing using PECOTA.

I know I'm late on these, but better late than never. More work than I though. I made some minor changes to the process. First, I'm using all the projected pitchers and the projected batting lineup from the RotoTimes depthchart. I'm using all pitchers listed, and still adjusting so it equals a full season of innings.

So, I might as well start with the division that gets the most exposure from ESPN. The American League East

AL East 2008 Projected Standings

1. Boston Red Sox: 95 - 67
2. New York Yankees 93 - 69
3. Toronto Blue Jays 86-76
4. Tampa Bay Rays 84-78
5. Baltimore Orioles 74-88 (Before trade: 77-85)

Nothing unexpected. Red Sox and Yankees duke it out for first. Baltimore is gonna suck. Rays improving. Below are the Runs Scored / Runs allowed.

AL East 2008 Projected Runs Scored/Allowed

1. Boston 891/730
2. New York 916/780
3. Toronto 795/737
4. Tampa 816/784
5. Baltimore 750/822 (Before trade: 750/797)

 

An interesting experiment I'm giving a shot this year is projecting win-loss records using the PECOTA projections.

I'm going to try it using Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation formula, The formula basically uses runs scored and runs allowed to estimate how many games a baseball team should have won, or should win.

Here is a summary of how I will do this. I provide the details on each step below.

1. Estimate runs scored using projected lineup and PECOTA stats
2. Estimate runs allowed using projected rotation and bullpen, and PECOTA runs allowed for that staff
3. Use Pythagorean Expectations formula to estimate winning percentage.
4. Apply that winning percentage to a 162-game schedule.

To get the runs scored, I'll use PECOTA hitting projections along with the very excellent Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings to project runs scored for what should be the team's opening day lineup. I'll use last years lineups and common sense (according the the average baseball manager anyway) on what the lineup should be, not what the Lineup Analysis tool gives as the most efficient lineup. The tool gives Runs per game, so multiply that by 162, and that gives you a runs projection based on the projected stats.

For pitchers, my approach will be somewhat similar to the one taken here. For the pitcher player pool, I'll use the projected depth charts from RotoTimes. I'll use the starting rotation(including spot starter, if specified), closer, and 3 best projected bullpen arms. I'll then use the runs allowed projections and innings pitched projections from PECOTA to estimate total runs allowed. Because I'm not using the full bullpen, the numbers will have to be adjusted to equal a full season of pitching. I'll just use a multiplier on the runs to equal approximately how many innings the entire staff should pitch.

After I have the projected runs scored and allowed, I'll plug them into the Pythagorean Expectations formula. Note that I will be using an exponent of 1.82, because this is deemed to be more accurate than the traditional square. There are more accurate ways to get the exponent (see Pythagenpat), but since my source data is probably wildly off from actual seasonal performance, I'll just stick the the simple 1.82 .

The Pythagorean Expectations yields a winning percentage, so I'll just multiply that by 162 to get estimated wins by the team in question.

Before I get any emails attacking my process here, I realize that this is probably not the best way to estimate what the team records will be. I've tried to make the process somewhat simple to allow me to estimate all the teams in the majors. These will more than likely be off. Remember the process is building on projected player stats, which are then projected out even further. It doesn't take into account bench players, injuries, other bullpen arms, and the like. So don't bet anything on what I give here. But, I'm giving it a shot. It's just for fun.

I'll tackle a division per day until I finish. I have a final exam tonight, so I probably won't be able to post the first division until Tuesday night. Check back then, or subscribe to the feed.

Now, I know this is supposed to be a baseball blog, but I can't help but talk about by far the biggest sport event today. And I'm not talking about Tiger Woods winning his second tournament of the season.

One heck of a football game played today. Congrats to the New York Football Giants. They played one awesome game as underdogs, and looked like the best team in football. The Giants defense should have been the MVPs. Defense wins championships.

Some issues with the game though.

1. It's time for a new network to take over the Super Bowl. If I see another Sarah Conner Chronicles commercial or lame American Idol tie-in, I'm gonna go berserk.
2. Along the same lines; Lame broadcast. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman: very underwhelming.
3. Some weak officiating. Missed the 12 men on field penalty, requiring a challenge. Booth didn't review some key plays in the final 2 minutes.
   
4. Belichick, looking quite stylish in a new bright red Patriots, was the biggest loser of the night. He showed a complete lack of class leaving the field before the game was finished.
   

Besides my little weak gripes, one heck of a football game. The Patriots Dynasty is over. Let the Manning Brothers Dynasty begin.

Now that the other sport is out of the way, back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Baseball Prospectus' excellent projections are out for subscribers. These are some of my favorite projections (and do fairly well against others in the crap shoot that are seasonal baseball projections).

I'd love to talk about some specific player projections(especially on a certain recently-traded high-profile pitcher), but they are paid for through a subscription and they ask not to distribute them, so I will not. I might be doing an article on how the season forecasts overall, hitting and pitching-wise, but that will be with totals, not specific player projections. But here are some teasers to encourage you to subscribe to BP (well worth 35 bucks/year).

My teaser is oddly offbeat. I've been kind of on a Three True Outcomes obsession lately for some strange reason. Three True Outcomes are the base on balls, the home run, and the strikeout. The TTO% is therefore (Walks + Strikeouts + Home Runs) / (At Bats + Walks).

Top 10 TTO% seasons for players with 300+ At Bats.

1. Jack Cust (2007) - .590
2. Mark McGwire(1998) - .577
3. Jack Clark (1987) - .559
4. Ryan Howard (2007) - .555
5. Melvin Nieves (1997) - .543
6. Jim Thome (2001) - .542
7. Dave Kingman (1973) -  .540
8. Rob Deer (1991) - .538
9. Russell Branyan (2001) - .538
10. Rob Deer (1987) - .536

Two guys cracked the top 10 seasons list last year, Jack Cust and Ryan Howard. So I decided to check and see what PECOTA is projecting this year for TTO%. These include only projected players with 300+ projected AB's.

2008 PECOTA Projected TTO%

1. Jack Cust - .508
2. Ryan Howard - .496
3. Chip Cannon - .492
4. Adam Dunn - .482

All the usual suspects except for Chip Cannon, a minor leaguer in the Toronto system. Very fun stuff.

Well, it's February. The Super Bowl is tomorrow. The NFL season is almost over. Almost exactly 2 months until April 1st, when real baseball finally starts. So what's a sports fan to do in the meantime?

Pro basketball doesn't interest me anymore. Still a month until March Madness. Hockey is ... hockey. February is by far the most boring month for me sports-wise.

So to pass the time, I'm establishing this site. Cold Hard Stats, a site about baseball in general and fantasy baseball. Here I'll be throwing out random commentary about the sport, players, teams, statistics, and the fantasy side of it all.

Now some disclaimers. I don't have a fancy degree in statistical analysis. I've never won a major fantasy tournament or experts league. I'm just some random 21 year-old college student who loves the game of baseball and fantasy sports. But, that is why the internet rocks, because random nerds like me can put our stuff out there for the masses to read.

So, bookmark this site, or subscribe to the updates with the site feed(email or feed reader). I'll be adding content regularly, so come back again soon.